In a piece for Russia Direct published on 8 December 2015, Russian political scientist Sergey Markedonov makes an interesting case for a modification of Russian policy toward Armenia. Most notably, he calls on the Kremlin to adopt a new policy of “diversified relations” with “all the political forces in Armenia, with an emphasis not so much on the person of the leader (or persons of the leading group), but on the strengthening of Russian-Armenian strategic cooperation.”
Further, he notes that for Moscow, “any changes in the country are extremely important,” and stresses that “the current situation (in Armenia) implies a difficult choice. Russia can give full support to the Armenian authorities on the assumption that they are the best bet in terms of promoting Russian interests. This is the customary approach, which does not call for ingenuity or creative solutions.
The danger, though, is that in the event of a change of power, the new leaders will treat the Kremlin with suspicion. Considerable efforts will then have to be made to build positive relations between the countries. Arguably, one should not wait passively for such a scenario to materialize. It is much more productive to prepare today already for every possible scenario.
Accordingly, Russia should avoid getting directly involved in Armenia’s internal disputes or making “bets” on one or another politician. Instead, wide contacts should be built across the whole Armenian political spectrum, from members of the parliament and business leaders to cultural figures and representatives from the non-governmental sector.”
More significant excerpts:
“….From a formal, legal point of view, one could speak of Armenia’s progress toward a more democratic rule. However, politics (especially in the post-Soviet republics) has its own peculiarities, many of which are not reducible to seemingly flawless legal formulae.”
“….Just over one-half (50.5 percent) of all the voters took part in the referendum, and 63.3 percent of those voted in support of the constitutional amendments.
Thus, formally, the amendments have been approved. However, if the proportion of supporters of the new constitution is computed with respect to the total number of voters, the figure is 32.17 percent. Although this is no violation from the formal point of view, this result can hardly be called an overwhelming victory.”
“….An alteration of the national constitution and the elections are Armenia’s internal affairs. On the other hand, the country is regarded by Russia as its key ally in Transcaucasia. Armenia is the only country of the region that is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
For that reason, any changes in the country are extremely important to Russia. In this connection, the current situation implies a difficult choice. Russia can give full support to the Armenian authorities on the assumption that they are the best bet in terms of promoting Russian interests. This is the customary approach, which does not call for ingenuity or creative solutions.
The danger, though, is that in the event of a change of power, the new leaders will treat the Kremlin with suspicion. Considerable efforts will then have to be made to build positive relations between the countries. Arguably, one should not wait passively for such a scenario to materialize. It is much more productive to prepare today already for every possible scenario.
Diversified relations should be built with all the political forces in Armenia, with an emphasis not so much on the person of the leader (or persons of the leading group), but on the strengthening of Russian-Armenian strategic cooperation in the Larger Caucasus.
Accordingly, Russia should avoid getting directly involved in Armenia’s internal disputes or making “bets” on one or another politician. Instead, wide contacts should be built across the whole Armenian political spectrum, from members of the parliament and business leaders to cultural figures and representatives from the non-governmental sector.”
http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/do-parliamentary-changes-armenia-mean-country-shifting-course