In an interview for the Tbilisi-based “Investor.ge” publication, RSC Director Richard Giragosian assessed the “potential impact of the Ukrainian crisis onArmenia’s decision to follow Russia into its Customs Union instead of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union.”
.The interview, published in the April-May 2014 issue of the Investor.ge magazine, was entitled “After Crimea: Will The Crisis Affect Armenia And Its Path Toward The Russian-Led Customs Union?” and included an analysis that argued that “the broader context of the Ukraine conflict has significant implications for Armenia, especially in terms of Russian power and influence in the so-called "near abroad" and concerning the outlook for the Russian-led Customs Union.”
Giragosian went on to say that “Moscow's apparent success in forcing Yerevan to backtrack on its intention to finalize pending agreements with the EU imposes several significant challenges on Armenia. In the short-term, once Armenia retreated and reneged on its planned "initialing" of an Association Agreement and related Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), it will be hard pressed to recover confidence and credibility. Such a move not only imperiled several years of difficult negotiations and reform, but also tested European patience and diminished European interest in Armenia. The decision to join the Customs Union also offers Armenia little if any alternative benefits, and may lock Armenia even more firmly within the Russian orbit, limiting its future to little more than a captive to Moscow's grand project for a rival Customs Union, as the first step toward the so-called "Eurasian Union." And in that broader context, the danger for Armenia stems from greater isolation, as closed borders remain sealed, and from a newly enhanced degree of insignificance, as the strategic importance of Armenia may only dramatically decrease. And, most distressing, Armenia also faces the very real threat of becoming little more than a "small, subservient Russian garrison state.”
He then argued that “the longer-term impact on Armenia will also be significant, undermining the Armenian government's already meager legitimacy by endangering the overall reform program and significantly weakening pro-Western reformers within the government. In addition, from a broader perspective, the Armenian retreat from its planned Association Agreement with the EU and its move toward Russia's Customs Union also reveal several deeper deficiencies within the Armenian government in terms of closed public policy, inadequate strategic planning and an informal decision-making process.”