In a series of articles, RSC Director Richard Giragosian offered his assessment of the crisis in Armenian-Russian relations in the wake of the tragic murder of an Armenian family by a Russian soldier stationed at the Russian military base in Gyumri.
.In an analytical article for al Jazeerra published on January 20, Giragosian wrote that the “slaying of Armenian family by a Russian soldier spurs intense debate over Armenia's security relationship with Russia.” The full article is available at: www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/01/armenia-can-count-russia-any-mo-201511852934497678.html
Giragosian’s comments were also published by Business New Europe (BNE) on January 16, in an article by Monica Ellena entitled, “Soldier’s murder of Armenian family raises questions about Yerevan-Moscow relations.” In that article the RSC Director noted that “the incident is a tipping point for the relation between Yerevan and Moscow.” He went on to add that although “pro-Russian feelings of large parts of the population is not in question, the event and how it has been mis-handled by both the Armenian and Russian authorities opened a debate about re-negotiating the terms of a deeply asymmetric relation.”
The imbalance starts with the Gyumri military installation, which is of no strategic relevance but is symbolically important. Unlike bases in other former Soviet Union republics, Russia pays neither rent nor the base’s running costs, which are entirely covered by the Armenian government, he added.
“Dependence on Russia is deeply entrenched but the incident showed it can affect the country’s own sovereignty,” he stressed. “The realistic outcome is for Permyakov to go on trial in Armenia in a Russian military court as there is one in Yerevan. But people will hardly accept this,” he adds.
“The president has been passive and silent, with the stated intention to avoid any kind of high profile involvement, and the unstated one to avoid angering Moscow,” stated Giragosian. “In normal circumstances, emotions will fade and the momentum will reverse, but police overreaction and lack of response from the authorities will make it harder to put it back in the bottle.”
The incident has lifted the lid over the Pandora box of Armenia’s socio-economic dependence on Russia. The impact of sanctions on Russia over Ukraine has been deeper than expected; remittances, a vital influx for the country’s cash-strapped economy, sharply declined; the national currency dived on the rouble’s devaluation, and food prices have increased.
According to Giragosian, the government’s inability to stand up for the Armenian people in Guymri also let out all the frustration over the derailing of the country’s European ambitions when it closed the door to the Association Agreement with Europe and joined instead the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
In a third article, “Armenia: Will Murders Bring Change to Ties with Russia?,” published on January 16 in Eurasianet, Marianna Grigoryan cited Giragosian as saying that the tragedy has triggered a profound sense of insecurity that ultimately could lead to a change in Armenians’ receptiveness toward a tight strategic partnership with Russia, adding that “it seems clear that this incident and the way the Russian military handles it, may become a turning point for the traditionally loyal and subservient Russian ally, Armenia.” The article was subsequently reprinted in the January 18 edition of the Moscow Times.
Ellena, Monica, “Soldier’s murder of Armenian family raises questions about Yerevan-Moscow relations,” Business New Europe (BNE), January 16, 2015.
Grigoryan, Marianna, “Armenia: Will Murders Bring Change to Ties with Russia?” Eurasianet, January 16, 2015. www.eurasianet.org/node/71666