In an analytical commentary published on 12 December by BNE Intellinews, RSC Director Richard Giragosian assessed the key developments in 2025 as “a year of unprecedented change in the South Caucasus.”
Excerpts:
For the three countries of the South Caucasus this year has been a time of unprecedented and unexpected developments. For both Armenia and Azerbaijan, a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough has ushered in a long overdue degree of optimism. Some five years after a devastating war in 2020 and over two years since Azerbaijan militarily captured the Nagorno Karabakh enclave and forcibly drove out the Armenian population there, both sides have attained startling success in bilateral negotiations.
Yet from a broader regional perspective, these positive developments between Armenia and Azerbaijan were sadly missing in neighbouring Georgia. After years of hard-fought gains in democratic reform, the current Georgian government has steadfastly squandered and even overturned those gains. And following an escalating crackdown on dissent, the Georgia’s government has only deepened its authoritarian position, blatantly defying and repressing its own population by moving further away from Europe and adopting a confrontational stance toward the West.
A shifting centre of gravity in the South Caucasus
Against that backdrop, the centre of gravity for regional stability has shifted. With Georgia no longer the leader in democratisation and reform, the positive momentum of post-war diplomacy between Armenia and Azerbaijan offers the primary hope for the future of the South Caucasus.
But the real question and concern is the sustainability of the unprecedented détente between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After initial talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Abu Dhabi in July 2025, a preliminary agreement was reached on both the text of a new draft bilateral peace treaty. The two sides also forged a compromise over the terms of an ambitious accord on connectivity, with plans for the restoration of road and rail transit through southern Armenia.
https://www.intellinews.com/comment-a-year-of-unprecedented-change-in-the-south-caucasus-416551/